Investment Tips 25-05-2023 15:30 35 Views

Dollar to Yen Retreats from YTD High

The U.S. dollar dropped on Monday. What about the yen? 

Dollar to Yen Retreats from YTD High

The USD/JPY pair breathes after hitting a Year-To-Date (YTD) high near 139.70 as traders reevaluate their positions. The Japanese yen gains some ground against the US dollar, with market sentiment remaining mixed.

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda acknowledges positive signs in Japan’s economy but emphasizes the need to sustain the easy monetary policy. This statement, along with divided opinions from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting regarding the recent rate hike, adds uncertainty to the market’s expectations for future policy moves.

Meanwhile, anxiety surrounding the US debt ceiling issue and ongoing negotiations weigh on market sentiment. Despite claims of progress, rating agencies Fitch and Moody express caution about the US credit rating status, amplifying concerns. As a result, investors seek safety in the US dollar, causing it to remain firm alongside higher US Treasury bond yields.

Technical Analysis: Resistance and Support Levels for USD/JPY

While the USD/JPY bulls take a pause, the market remains cautious due to the potential US default and the diverging policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Additionally, upcoming data releases and technical indicators will play a role in determining the pair’s direction, highlighting the importance of understanding the dynamics of the Yen exchange rate.

Technical analysis suggests that the USD/JPY pair faces resistance near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of around 139.60. Further resistance lies at the late November 2022 peak near 139.90 and the psychological level of 140.00. On the downside, the previous resistance line near 137.80 acts as immediate support.

The US dollar demonstrates mixed performance against the Japanese yen, with potential for further upward movement. Buyers show interest, pushing the currency towards the ¥140 level. Strong support is anticipated at ¥137, while a breach of this level could lead to a decline toward ¥135. Additional support is anticipated from technical indicators, specifically the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

Interest Rate Differential in Dollar to Yen Strength

The strength of the US dollar is bolstered by the significant interest rate gap between the US and Japan. The Federal Reserve’s stringent monetary policy, in contrast to the Bank of Japan’s implementation of quantitative easing and yield curve control, leads to increased demand for the US dollar. Although volatility may persist, the prevailing momentum suggests further upward movement, with a potential long-term target of ¥148 according to a “measured move” analysis.

Traders observing the currency market closely may need to pay attention to the Dollar to Yen exchange rate. The significant interest rate differential between the US and Japan contributes to the strength of the US dollar. The demand is driven by the Federal Reserve’s tight monetary policy and the Bank of Japan’s quantitative easing measures. Meanwhile, volatility may persist. The prevailing momentum suggests the potential for further upward movement in the Dollar to Yen exchange rate. Traders are encouraged to seize buying opportunities while remaining cautious of any shifts in the Bank of Japan’s trajectory that could affect the dynamics of the USD/JPY pair.

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