As predicted, and as we wrote about yesterday, oil prices continued to climb in anticipation of an OPEC+ production cut. Reports confirmed today that OPEC+ will cut production by 2 million barrels a day.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which the Biden administration has tapped to ease gas prices, has dropped to its lowest level since 1984, and scheduled releases will end soon. The continuation of multiple Russian sanctions and the decrease in supply should exert upward pressure on oil prices.
Will the stock market rally this week and be able to shrug off rising oil prices? What do higher energy prices mean for global inflation?
The global energy demand and supply imbalance will take time to resolve and, long-term, more resources must be put towards renewable, nuclear and alternative fuels. On the demand side, the critical element of the European gas plan going into the winter of 2022-2023 is reducing consumption, which is, regrettably, not yet happening. Although some people are optimistic, the reality is that inflation will remain problematic if the European energy crisis and the conflict in Ukraine continue. OPEC+'s production cut has the potential to increase global inflation unintentionally.
The United States Oil ETF (USO) increased on Wednesday to 71.94, which is barely below both its 50-day moving average and 200-day moving average. USO has strong leadership, good momentum and a divergence in Real Motion, all of which indicate higher prices ahead.
Mish writes a mid-week column for CMC Markets and, in her article today, she explains that we are looking for the end of inflation in "all the wrong places." She covers the Supercycle in commodities and how stagflation is impacting global markets. Mish addresses historical correlations from 1972, 1982 and other pivotal years; her analysis addresses many areas of the commodity cycle, particularly the gold price, gold miners, and the S&P 500. She points out that several commodities tend to start a positive trend shortly after gold starts to outperform the S&P 500.
In this period of historically high inflation, investors are wise to keep an eye on the oil and gold markets.
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